Unlike his iconoclastic Democratic colleague Kyrsten Sinema, Kelly has kept a low profile in the chamber so far, and he’ll face the challenge of distinguishing himself from his party’s brand. Mark Kelly (D), a former astronaut, was also another of Democrats’ biggest success stories in a 2020 special election, who also must now run for a full term in a state that narrowly tipped from Trump to Biden. Meanwhile, Democrats hope the presence of Warnock and likely gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams on the ballot will motivate Black voters to turn out for them.Īrizona: Sen. But some are a bit worried about Walker, who’s a political novice with a good deal of baggage in his personal history (for instance, his ex-wife alleged that he put a gun to her head and threatened to kill her). Republicans are hoping Democrats’ narrow Georgia triumphs last cycle were a fluke, and that the long-red state is moving back toward the GOP. His likely opponent is Herschel Walker (R), a former University of Georgia football star, making this a rare US Senate race likely to feature two Black major party nominees. Raphael Warnock (D) won his seat in a high-stakes January 2021 runoff, but that was a special election he has to run again for a full term this fall. Republicans’ top Democratic-held Senate targets Youyou Zhou/Vox Democrats’ Senate chances likely hinge on whether enough of their candidates can escape this partisan gravity, arguing either that they’re not just another Democrat, or that their opponent is a uniquely unfit Republican. It’s reasonable to expect that with Biden’s national standing declining, Senate seats in these states are in great danger of slipping out of Democrats’ grasp.īut while Senate race outcomes have become more correlated with national partisanship, individual candidates do frequently overperform or underperform the overall trend. These six states - four held by Democrats, and two held by Republicans - are currently the core of the 2022 competitive Senate map, though other contests could also come into play. Nevada, meanwhile, trended right relative to the country between 20, though Biden still won it. At least once in either 2016 or 2020, Trump either won or came quite close to winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Another way to think about the map is that there are six true swing states with races this cycle. (They do have three such seats coming up in 2024, which will be a major challenge, but that’s a problem for another time.) Meanwhile, there are two GOP-held seats in states Biden narrowly won, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, on the ballot.īut that’s likely too optimistic for Democrats. In the two most recent midterm cycles, they were badly exposed, with several incumbents in states the Republican presidential candidate just won. “Mismatched” senators, who represent a state their party’s presidential nominee lost, are becoming rarer.įrom that perspective, Democrats have a pretty okay map in 2022. Senate races have been falling in line with the state’s presidential party preference. The vast majority of those races (16 of 20) had the same partisan outcome as either the presidential race that year or, in midterm years without a presidential contest, the most recent one. In the past decade, there have been 20 individual Senate elections where a seat ended up flipping to the other party. A GOP takeover would dramatically constrain the next two years of Biden’s presidency, and set progressives up for even more disappointment in this administration than they’ve already faced. Senate control would give Republicans veto power over Biden’s appointees - new Cabinet secretaries and subcabinet officials, as well as judges, including even a future Supreme Court justice should a vacancy unexpectedly arise. Losing the Senate would be an even more painful blow. Most analysts expect Democrats to lose the House. But if the national environment keeps looking so dire for the party and the president, that would be a tall order. If Democrats manage to hold their losses to a minimum, or make up for them by defeating Republicans elsewhere, they could keep Senate control. The main thing they have going for them is a decent map - they aren’t defending any seats in states Trump won in 2020, while Republicans are defending two states Biden narrowly won. However, Democrats do still have a way to hold on. Second, the Senate is already split 50-50, so a net gain of even just one seat for Republicans would flip the chamber into their hands. The GOP has improved in generic ballot polls and won the governor’s seat in Virginia last November. First, the national environment has moved in their favor. Republicans appear favored to win back the Senate for two simple reasons. Democrats’ control of the 50-50 Senate could well be washed away by a red wave in this fall’s midterm elections.
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